UPDATE as of 4 p.m. Wednesday...

As expected, a cluster of thunderstorms is clipping northern New Jersey this afternoon. They will largely stay north of the Interstate 80 corridor through the 4 and 5 o'clock hours, potentially drifting as far south as Interstate 78 this evening.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect until 10 p.m. for five counties in NW NJ: Hunterdon, Morris, Somerset, Sussex, and Warren. An additional watch may be issued farther east if the storms hold together.

Severe T-Storm Watch (pink) until 10 p.m. (Townsquare Media / AerisWeather)
Severe T-Storm Watch (pink) until 10 p.m. (Townsquare Media / AerisWeather)
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ORIGINAL POST from 6:33 a.m. Wednesday...

The Bottom Line

Happy June 1st! This is the beginning of climatological summer, the warmest three months of the year. It is also the official start of the Atlantic hurricane season, which runs until November 30.

GFS model high temperatures forecast for Wednesday afternoon, ranging form the 60s to the 80s across New Jersey. (Tropical Tidbits)
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GFS model high temperatures forecast for Wednesday afternoon, ranging form the 60s to the 80s across New Jersey. (Tropical Tidbits)[/caption]

No matter where you are, the day should generally look nice, with periods of sun and clouds.

A batch of spotty thunderstorms is expected to develop over Central New York and Pennsylvania Wednesday afternoon. Those storms may clip the northern edge of NJ. But as they enter our cooler air mass, thunderstorm cells should quickly disintegrate to just showers.

Wednesday's severe weather outlook suggests some stronger thunderstorm cells may clip northern New Jersey. (NOAA / SPC)
Wednesday's severe weather outlook suggests some stronger thunderstorm cells may clip northern New Jersey. (NOAA / SPC)
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I will keep a chance of showers throughout the northern half of the state Wednesday evening. Fog is possible overnight too, with a hint of humidity in the air. Temperatures should normalize by Thursday morning, bottoming out in the lower 60s.

Thursday

Good start, stormy finish.

The first part of Thursday will be partly sunny and warm, with high temperatures primarily reaching the lower 80s. (Cooler 70s in NW NJ and along the coast.)

But you will have to watch the sky starting around 2 or 3 p.m. Thursday afternoon, as a round of thunderstorms pushes in from the west. The storm threat will continue until about Midnight Thursday evening.

Widespread thunderstorms will slide through New Jersey Thursday afternoon and evening, as illustrated by the NAM model forecast as of 5 p.m. (College of DuPage Meteorology)
Widespread thunderstorms will slide through New Jersey Thursday afternoon and evening, as illustrated by the NAM model forecast as of 5 p.m. (College of DuPage Meteorology)
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Those storms are going to be widespread. Latest model guidance shows at least a half-inch of rain across the Garden State. But the big concern is for pockets of locally heavy rainfall, possibly totalling 2 to 3+ inches. That could cause some significant ponding and flooding issues. Severe thunderstorm cells with gusty winds are possible too. And, unfortunately, the worst weather could coincide with Thursday evenings commute.

Thursday's severe weather outlook shows the highest threat of gusty storms will be in southern New Jersey. (NOAA / SPC)
Thursday's severe weather outlook shows the highest threat of gusty storms will be in southern New Jersey. (NOAA / SPC)
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Friday

Cooler, drier air returns. And that's going to contribute to a beautiful June day.

As skies become sunny, high temperatures should hit upper 70s or so. It will be breezy, with winds out of the northwest up to 20 mph — I think it will feel refreshing. We'll also enjoy lower humidity and dry weather all day.

The Weekend & Beyond

Sunshine and mid to upper 70s on Saturday. Partly sunny and upper 70s to around 80 on Sunday. Sounds great to me!

Our next chance of rain won't come until early next week. Late Sunday night at the latest.

One more item worth noting. Hurricane Agatha made landfall along the Pacific coast of Mexico on Mexico. As of Wednesday morning, that piece of energy (no longer tropical) is over the Yucatan Peninsula. As it enters the Gulf of Mexico, there's a good chance it gets organized and redvelops into a tropical storm. If so, it will earn the first name on the Atlantic hurricane list for 2022: Alex.

We have been in a very active tropical period lately, with New Jersey suffering some highly impactful storms over the last two years. (Fay, Isaias, Ida.) So we have to watch the development of every storm carefully, in case direct and/or indirect impacts eventually threaten New Jersey.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook or Twitter for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.

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