Summary

As of Saturday morning, Post-Tropical Cyclone Ian was centered over North Carolina. The storm will drive pockets of rain and gusty winds into New Jersey through the weekend. Although it will not be a "total washout," conditions will be dreary and sloppy for the duration.

In addition to the dismal weather, a serious concern is growing along the Jersey Shore. As Ian's remnant low ejects into the Atlantic Ocean, strong northeasterly winds will push a great deal of ocean water toward the coast. That surge is the driver of both rough surf and coastal flooding.

An additional 1 to 3 feet of water will cause minor to moderate flooding of tidal waterways for several high tide cycles in a row: Sunday, Monday, and possibly Tuesday too. That's enough to flood out vulnerable roadways and low-lying areas, and possibly cause some property damage. This degree of water rise and flooding goes just beyond "the usual spots". The latest tidal models show Monday evening's high tide to be the highest of the storm.

Beaches will be battered by wind, waves, and spray. Ian is far from hurricane strength, as it was when it slammed Florida and then South Carolina earlier this week. But the impacts here are akin to a strong nor'easter (minus any snow/ice, of course).

Although our "Jersey Shore Report" season has technically ended, I will keep the posts coming until the surge, surf, and coastal flooding threats subside. (Hopefully the tide times are especially helpful.) The latest edition of the report appears below, in an abbreviated format.

Be safe, stay dry, and stay warm out there.

Advisories

—High Risk of Rip Currents for area beaches this weekend, due to increased surf and swell. Stay out of the ocean.
—Coastal Flood Advisory for the Jersey Shore from 10 a.m. Saturday to 6 a.m. Monday, calling for several rounds of Minor tidal flooding.
—Coastal Flood Watch posted for coastal counties for Monday, as Moderate tidal flooding becomes likely.

At the Shore

Current conditions and forecast as of Sat morning

Rip Current RiskHigh
Waves5 - 10 feet
WindsFrom the Northeast
23 - 35 mph (Gust 40 mph)
20 - 30 knots (Gust 35 knots)
Ocean Temperature65° - 72°
(Normal 61° - 63°)
Air Temperature60° - 67°
Sunrise/Sunset6:52am - 6:43pm
UV Index2 (Low)

Tide Times

SANDY HOOK
Sandy Hook Bay
Low
Sat 5:56a
High
Sat 12:28p
Low
Sat 7:02p
High
Sun 1:01a
 
LONG BRANCH
Atlantic Ocean
Low
Sat 5:20a
High
Sat 12:02p
Low
Sat 6:26p
High
Sun 12:35a
 
MANASQUAN INLET
Atlantic Ocean
Low
Sat 5:32a
High
Sat 12:16p
Low
Sat 6:38p
High
Sun 12:49a
 
SEASIDE HEIGHTS
Atlantic Ocean
Low
Sat 5:24a
High
Sat 11:58a
Low
Sat 6:30p
High
Sun 12:31a
 
SEASIDE PARK
Barnegat Bay
Low
Sat 10:01a
High
Sat 4:08p
Low
Sat 11:07p
High
Sun 4:41a
 
BARNEGAT INLET
Barnegat Bay
Low
Sat 5:56a
High
Sat 12:20p
Low
Sat 7:10p
High
Sun 12:53a
 
MANAHAWKIN BRIDGE
Manahawkin Bay
Low
Sat 9:35a
High
Sat 3:15p
Low
Sat 10:41p
High
Sun 3:48a
 
LITTLE EGG INLET
Great Bay
Low
Sat 6:30a
High
Sat 1:12p
Low
Sat 7:42p
High
Sun 1:43a
 
ATLANTIC CITY
Atlantic Ocean
Low
Sat 5:31a
High
Sat 11:59a
Low
Sat 6:39p
High
Sun 12:25a
 
OCEAN DRIVE BRIDGE
Townsends Inlet
Low
Sat 5:57a
High
Sat 12:40p
Low
Sat 7:08p
High
Sun 12:59a
 
WILDWOOD CREST
Atlantic Ocean
Low
Sat 5:39a
High
Sat 12:07p
Low
Sat 6:45p
High
Sun 12:37a
 
CAPE MAY
Delaware Bay
Low
Sat 6:39a
High
Sat 1:14p
Low
Sat 7:35p
High
Sun 1:43a
 

Marine Forecast

From the National Weather Service, Mt. Holly

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT

GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON

TODAY: NE winds 25 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft. E swell 3 to 8 ft at 7 seconds. Light swells. Rain with a chance of tstms. Vsby 1 to 3 NM until late afternoon.

TONIGHT: NE winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft. NE swell 3 to 6 ft at 6 seconds, becoming SE 3 to 4 ft at 6 seconds after midnight. A chance of tstms in the evening. Rain likely.

SUN: NE winds 25 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft, building to 9 to 11 ft in the afternoon. NE swell 4 to 9 ft at 6 seconds. Light swells. Rain.

SUN NIGHT: NE winds 25 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft. NE swell 7 to 12 ft at 8 seconds. Light swells. Rain, mainly in the evening.

MON: NE winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft. E swell 6 to 11 ft at 8 seconds. Light swells. A chance of rain.

MON NIGHT: NE winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 9 ft. E swell 6 to 10 ft at 9 seconds. Light swells. A chance of rain.

TUE: NE winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming N 15 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft. A chance of rain in the morning, then a chance of showers through the night.

WED: N winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon and evening, then becoming NW 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 4 to 7 ft, subsiding to 4 to 5 ft after midnight. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

Plan Your Trip

Data on this page amalgamated from several sources, including the National Weather Service (weather), National Ocean Service (tides), U.S. Naval Observatory (sun), and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (UV index).

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. The Shore Report is generated semi-automatically daily at 5 a.m. from mid-May to late September. Follow Dan's weather blog, Facebook page, and Twitter feed for your latest forecast and realtime weather updates.

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