The Bottom Line

Can you believe we have reached the last day of February? Overall, it was a pretty boring weather month for New Jersey. We only had two winter storms - on the 13th and the 25th - resulting in only a few inches of snow. (If that.) Temperatures averaged a few degrees above-normal for the month.

The transition from February to March is not looking lion-ish at all. (Hence the 'lamb' as the feature photo for this article.) Quiet and mainly dry weather will prevail, although we do have some minimal shower chances to talk about. And some temperature swings too, from cold to seasonable to mild and back again.

Our next period of unsettled, active weather will not come along until next weekend.

Monday

Chilly. A cold, very dry air mass has taken hold of New Jersey's atmosphere. So, surprise surprise, this is a pretty cold and very dry forecast. Temperatures will end up about 10 degrees colder than Sunday. And that also just happens to be 10 degrees below normal for the final day of February.

We're starting off in the 20s across most of New Jersey. And with a biting breeze, the wind chill is in the teens and 20s statewide. You'll probably find yourself reaching for the heavier coat option heading out the door. (I did.)

Highs will only reach the mid to upper 30s Monday afternoon. At least skies will be mostly sunny. And the wind will continue to calm down through the afternoon too.

Some clouds will build Monday night. It will be cold again, with lows dipping into the mid 20s.

Tuesday

A bit warmer. Highs push into the upper 40s, a seasonable start to March.

Skies will turn mostly cloudy. And some spotty showers may creep in Tuesday evening. It looks like just raindrops. And the best chance for a brief shot of damp weather would be the northern half of the state. Not a big deal.

Wednesday

Quite possibly the "weather winner of the week". Under partly sunny skies, highs will push into the lower to mid 50s. Dry weather and light westerly winds. A pleasant early March day.

Thursday & Friday

Things will start to slide backward again on Thursday, as cooler air arrives — eventually. The first part of the day will bring a mix of sun and some clouds, a stiff breeze, and maybe a shower or sprinkle. High temperatures will be slightly cooler than Wednesday, in the seasonable upper 40s. (Maybe hanging on to some 50s in South Jersey.)

Friday's high temperatures return to the 30s. Not quite a "deep freeze" day, but certainly unseasonable for early March. I am concerned that the wind chill will approach the single digits Friday morning. On the whole, the day looks cloudy and cold, but dry.

The Extended Forecast

Our weather will turn more active, more unsettled, and more complicated starting this weekend. Clouds will win the sky, with an increasing chance of precipitation from late Saturday into Sunday. With high temperatures climbing from the 40s (Saturday) into the 50s (Sunday), it looks like a rainmaker. (We'll have to watch a limited chance of icy mix in North Jersey though.)

More clouds and unsettled, occasionally wet weather are expected early next week. We may not see the sun again until midweek.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook or Twitter for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.

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