The Bottom Line

So far in the summer of 2022, we have been blessed with so many stretches of not-humid weather. And we will add one more day to that tally on Monday — sunny, warm, dry, and just plain beautiful.

However, changes are afoot for Tuesday, as heat and humidity surge into New Jersey. Not only will that lead to a sticky, steamy, sultry summer day. But we'll also have to keep an eye on the sky for strong to severe thunderstorms.

Wednesday will still be very warm, but has the potential to be another dry and reasonably pleasant day.

Our weather turned a bit more unsettled late-week, as a storm system parks off the coast. But if you're looking for a good soaking to solve our recent rainfall deficit, you'll have to wait a little longer.

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Monday

Another gorgeous, warm summer day. Lather up on the sunscreen. And stay hydrated. Also, beware the moderate risk of rip currents posted at the Jersey Shore.

We're starting off 7/11 Day quite comfortable, with temperatures in the 50s (most of NJ) and 60s (cities and coast). Sunny skies, dry weather, and low humidity means thermometers will shoot up quickly starting mid-morning. Highs should reach the mid 80s Monday afternoon — that is right on our normal highs for July, the hottest time of the year.

We'll keep mainly clear skies and relatively comfortable conditions for Monday night. I doubt it'll be as cool as the previous night. My latest forecast puts lows in the upper 60s or so.

Tuesday

Downright hot and sticky. As hot, humid air surges in on a strong southwesterly breeze, highs will peak in the lower 90s across most of the state. (The only exceptions: far NW NJ and the immediate coast.)

Dew points will rise to about 70 — that is pretty moist, humid air, more typical of summertime in New Jersey.

Skies will be partly sunny through morning and midday. And then we have to watch the skies for some stormy weather.

An isolated shower or thunderstorm may pop in northern/central New Jersey as early as about 1 p.m. Tuesday. But the main event will be ahead of a cold front a bit later — between 4 p.m. and Midnight.

The strongest storms will occur to the north and west, peaking right around dinnertime. As storms approach cooler, more stable air along the coast — and as sunset approaches — storms should fizzle quite a bit.

Tuesday's severe weather outlook highlights northwestern New Jersey as the most likely to experience powerful thunderstorms. (NOAA / SPC)
Tuesday's severe weather outlook highlights northwestern New Jersey as the most likely to experience powerful thunderstorms. (NOAA / SPC)
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Heavy rain (1+ inch) and gusty winds (60+ mph) are the biggest concerns. Hail and even a tornado are on the table too. It will definitely be a "weather aware" day.

As rain exits the coast Tuesday night, skies will start to clear. Low temperatures will dip to around 70 degrees through Wednesday morning — typical for mid July.

Wednesday

It will still be a very warm day. But humidity will dial back a bit, with dew points dipping into the 60s.

High temperatures should reach about 85 to 90 degrees on Wednesday. I think we'll see mixed sunshine and clouds.

And I am opting for a dry forecast for now. However, let's not completely rule out a stray shower or storm at some point on Wednesday. The aforementioned cold front is expected to stall just south of New Jersey, and could be the impetus for a little rain activity.

Thursday

Late-week, the forecast gets tricky as model guidance diverges. The GFS favors unsettled weather and just-below-normal temperatures. The Euro is drier and hotter. For the time being, I have settled on a middle-ground call.

For Thursday, expect mostly cloudy skies and a few showers. Best chance of rain looks to be centered around the midday hours. High temperatures will be held in the lower to mid 80s.

The Extended Forecast

On paper, Friday will be very similar to Thursday. Partial sunshine, with a few showers. No significant wind or severe weather threat. Humidity will be "there," but not stifling and suffocating.

The weekend trends warmer, with mid 80s on Saturday and near 90 on Sunday. The best chance of showers and storms over the weekend looks to be late-day Sunday.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook or Twitter for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.

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