The Bottom Line

You can ditch the heavy winter coat for a few days, as we're treated to a little February thaw this week. Over each of the next four days in a row, somewhere in New Jersey should hit 50+ degrees. With only one little chance of precipitation between now and the start of the weekend. (That is coming Wednesday night.)

The weekend gets tricky. As arctic air returns behind a cold front, Sunday will turn about 20 degrees colder than Saturday. And that may set the stage for a coastal storm system to produce snow as it flies by New Jersey in the late Sunday to early Monday time frame.

Wednesday

The entire state is frozen Wednesday morning — which is no surprise here in early-mid February, of course. Temperatures are almost all in the 20s to begin the day.

High temps Wednesday afternoon should climb into the upper 40s to around 50 degrees. That is about 5 degrees above normal for this time of year. It should be a very nice February day, with sunny skies, dry weather, and generally light winds.

Some clouds will pass overhead Wednesday night. And then a weak impulse looks to drive in some showers late Wednesday night, after Midnight. (So, technically, early Thursday morning.)

Most low temperatures will only dip into the mid 30s overnight, above freezing. But in northern New Jersey, it may be just cold enough for some snowflakes and wintry mix. Intensity looks light. Still, I would be wary of slippery spots through Thursday morning.

Thursday

After the early morning showers wrap up (around daybreak), we've got another winner of a weather day on deck. With partly sunny skies, a stiff southwesterly breeze will fuel even more of a warmup. Highs should push into the lower to mid 50s Thursday afternoon. That is about 10 degrees above normal for this time of year. And that is wonderful news.

Friday

A slight step backward, but we're still looking at highs near 50. And with abundant sunshine and dry weather, it will be another nice day.

Saturday

Since we last spoke, the timing of an inevitable cold front has slid a bit earlier. So the first half of Saturday will still be mild, but I doubt our ability to hit 60 degrees, as previously mentioned.

Still, we'll hit about 50 degrees one more time on Saturday. Skies will turn mostly cloudy or overcast. And the approaching cold front will likely kick up some wind and possibly spark some showers late day. (Best chance of raindrops and/or snowflakes would be central and southern New Jersey.)

The truly cold air hopefully won't settle in until Saturday night. I wouldn't be surprised to see some teens return to thermometers by Sunday morning. Brrr.

Sunday & Beyond

With the return of cold air, and with that aforementioned cold front just off-shore, we look to a potential coastal storm system and chance of snow at the tail-end of the weekend. Fuzzy timeline would be late Sunday afternoon through Monday morning. (That's Valentine's Day, by the way.)

This storm system has been on our radar for a few days now. I've declared it "worth watching," and that's still about where we stand at this point. The latest GFS drifts it close enough to the Jersey Shore to be a problem. (Meanwhile, the Euro shows a big fat nothing.)

Sunday is in the 5 Day Forecast now. So I have to include the chance of snow. But it's still far enough away that we can not declare it a "hit" or "miss" just yet. As for the exact timing and magnitude and accumulations and impacts? Too soon.

Even though a cold dome of high pressure will build in next week, there looks like another opportunity for active weather coming late next week, around Thursday-Friday.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook or Twitter for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.

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