NJ weather: How high will temperatures soar by this weekend?
The Bottom Line
Normal high temperatures for early November range from 59 to 62 degrees across New Jersey. (Those numbers represent a smoothed 30-year average.) But we're talking about thermometers running at least 5 to 10 degrees above that mark. Each of the next seven days has a shot at hitting 70+ degrees somewhere in New Jersey. Wow, not very November-ish.
Meanwhile, the chance of rain, fog, and frost will stay very low. What a boring — and incredibly pleasant — stretch of weather.
The only piece of significant weather news for Wednesday is a weak disturbance passing just south of New Jersey. While North Carolina and Virginia will get wet, I think we will stay dry. However, some extra cloud cover will spread into southern New Jersey as the day goes along.
We'll start the day with sunshine, very limited patchy fog, and temperatures primarily in the 50s. While the northern half of the state should keep blue skies all day, South Jersey will become partly sunny (or even mostly cloudy) by late afternoon.
High temperatures are forecast to reach the upper 60s to around 70 degrees. Close to where we ended up on Tuesday. Technically, this is one of the coolest days of the week (along with Thursday). But again, those temps are well above normal for this time of year.
You may or may not need a jacket Thursday morning, with low temperatures on either side of 50.
Highs on Thursday will reach the mid to upper 60s. Sunshine, light winds, comfortable air, and dry weather should make for a delightful day.
The warmup really kicks in Friday, as high pressure builds in and winds become southwesterly. My latest forecast puts NJ's average high temperature around 70 degrees, with plenty of sunshine.
That's the prevailing outlook, but it's not a slam dunk. There is one forecast model — the NAM — that paints Thursday and Friday as much cloudier and cooler days. But I can not find any justifiable reason for such a dreary solution. So, worth a mention, but I'm leaning hard toward the bright, warm forecast.
It is worth noting that the all-time record high temperatures for this weekend are close to 80 degrees. Based on what I'm seeing, tying or breaking those records are not out of the question.
The latest guidance puts highs in the lower to mid 70s for both Saturday and Sunday. The weather will generally be nice, with a mix of sun and clouds. An isolated shower or sprinkle can't be rule out Sunday morning though.
The Extended Forecast
One more day of 70s on Monday, before a Tuesday cold front knocks back temperatures. That frontal boundary will probably drag in our next batch of widespread rain. (Note: A full week away.)
Temperature knock back to more seasonable levels for late next week. Long-range models show another cooldown into "chilly" territory will arrive around the midpoint of November. And that may prime the ground and atmosphere for potential snow by Thanksgiving. (I'm not saying that's in the forecast — just looking at ingredients.)
Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook or Twitter for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.