The Bottom Line
New Jersey's big weather headline over the next several days is very clear: Unseasonably cold temperatures. Thursday is also the first of five days in a row that New Jersey will fall into the "breezy" category, adding an extra bite to the cold air.
Meanwhile, residents of western New York (including Buffalo) are bracing for upwards of 2 to 4 feet of lake-effect snow through the weekend. That is relevant to our weather, as decaying snow bands are notorious for increasing cloud cover here in New Jersey. We also have to watch for the possibility of a snow band "surviving" long enough to drive a snow shower or snow squall through part of the state too.
Looking for a big warmup? Next week will be better. Although I suspect temperatures will be stuck below seasonal normals until sometime in December.
Looking for our next big storm system? Next widespread rain/snow is forecast to arrive sometime on Black Friday — 8 days away.
30s in the morning, only lower to mid 40s in the afternoon. We are running about 10 to 15 degrees below normal for this time of year.
Look for sunshine, with some passing clouds. And that chilly breeze will blow out of the west, occasionally gusting over 20 mph. That may keep the wind chill (or "feels like" temperature) in the 30s for much of the day.
I can't rule out a few flurries flying around North Jersey, especially early and late in the day.
Thursday night looks clear and cool. Viewing conditions may be good enough for the start of the Leonid meteor shower. Low temperatures will dip to around the 30-degree mark. A freeze for most of the state.
Friday will be very similar to Thursday. Mostly sunny, breezy, and 40s.
In addition, all forecast models are now latching on to a shower chance around dinnertime Friday. A little wave could spark a little shower around the early evening hours (5 to 8 p.m.) There are even some suggestions that a pocket of snow gets a bit squall-ish, adding visibility concerns and light accumulations into the mix. I think it's only a slight chance this develops at all — but it's still worth a mention.
This weekend turns even colder — here's where the "dead of winter" stuff kicks in.
Not only are temperatures going down, but also dew points. The air is going to be incredibly dry, making precipitation non-existent. It also means you may be reaching for the lip balm and hair spray.
Skies on Saturday will be partly sunny. Widespread morning low temperatures may hit the 20s. Afternoon highs will only reach about 40 degrees. (Again, remember normal highs are in the mid 50s here in mid-November.)
Sunday now looks like the "bottom of the barrel" for temperatures this week. If it were late January, it would be a totally typical day.
20s in the morning, only upper 30s in the afternoon. Plus, with a brisk northwesterly wind popping over 20 mph again, the wind chill may be stuck in the teens and 20s throughout the day.
The Extended Forecast
If all goes well, temperatures will moderate as the Thanksgiving week begins.
Monday will be sunny and breezy, as temperatures return to the 40s. And then expect 50s for Tuesday and Wednesday.
The early forecast for Thanksgiving Thursday (only a week away) looks quiet. Our next substantial storm system and chance of rain/snow is off on the horizon, next Friday into Saturday.