Still gloomy Tuesday across NJ – occasional showers and drizzle
The Bottom Line
Blech. New Jersey's weather this week is more reminiscent of London. Or San Francisco. The fog, the mist, the rain.
We will see slight improvements on Tuesday. But it is going to be another cloudy, humid, damp and dreary day overall. Less rainy than Monday, but we will still have sporadic showers and sprinkles and drizzle around. At least temperatures are on the mild side.
Wednesday's weather will get even better, as this storm system runs out of gas. Our next big weather "event" will be a cold front Wednesday evening. That will sweep out the "junk". And drive in a new, slightly cooler, much drier air mass.
So if you're looking for the return of sunshine and crisp fall weather, you will have to wait until Thursday.
The day begins with fog. Visibility has been as low as a quarter-mile Tuesday. So you may have to slow down a bit. And watch out for the deer — they are really running amuck.
Fog will largely thin out by midday (10 a.m. to 1 p.m.) Tuesday. But it's going to stay cloudy and misty and drizzly.
The chance of "rain" is pretty limited Tuesday. Occasional showers are likely. But they'll be few and far between. And nothing heavy is expected, with rainfall totals far less than a tenth of an inch. (Compare that to over an inch in spots on Monday.)
Meanwhile, it's really humid. Dew points will be firmly in the 60s. And temperatures will range from 60-ish Tuesday morning to the mid 60s Tuesday afternoon. (It would be warmer, if not for the thick clouds and damp conditions.)
More of the same is coming for Tuesday night. Lots of clouds. A resurgence of fog. And low temperatures in the upper 50s. Still closer to normal highs (60s) than normal lows (40s) at this point of the season.
Showers will become even rarer on Wednesday. We could see a few isolated showers around New Jersey. The best chance for raindrops will be in the evening hours (starting around 7 p.m.) as a cold front arrives.
I'm also calling Wednesday "mostly cloudy," potentially allowing for some breaks of sun. That will allow high temperatures to push toward 70 degrees. With that humidity in the air, it might feel pretty muggy.
Again, the arrival of a cold front will spark a few showers. And bring a slow leak of drier air Wednesday night. Low temperatures will probably only fall into the lower-mid 50s.
The nicest day of the week, perhaps?
Skies will clear to sunshine by Thursday afternoon. It will be breezy, blowing out of the northwest up to 20 mph. And it will be slightly cooler, with highs scaling back to the mid 60s.
The biggest positive change on Thursday will be the slow, steady decrease in dew points throughout the day. We will transition from semi-humid to crisp n' dry.
A fall-like Friday. With one little asterisk.
With a mix of sun and clouds, we swing back to the cool side of normal on Friday. A frost is possible in the coldest sectors of NJ Friday morning. And then Friday afternoon, highs will only reach the upper 50s.
There is one potential wrinkle in our plans heading into the weekend. A storm system over the middle of the Atlantic Ocean — literally near Bermuda — could develop into a tropical or subtropical storm in the next day. (The next name on the list is Lisa, by the way.) I don't think we face any dramatic, stormy impacts from this storm system. But if it drifts close enough to New Jersey, we could see some light showers clip the coast.
It's one of those things that I'm leaving out of my "on-air forecast" for now, for simplicity purposes. But something we'll be watching very closely.
The Extended Forecast
I like what I see for the final weekend of October. But again, that chance of thicker clouds and spotty coastal showers is worth watching.
I'd call Saturday partly sunny, with high temps holding steady in the upper 50s.
Sunday will feature more cloud cover. But also higher temperatures, bumping into the lower 60s.
Halloween is Monday, and it falls right on the edge of our next storm system. I still favor a late-night arrival time of any raindrops. But it's close to impacting trick-or-treating time.
Additional rain is probable into the first of November on Tuesday. (Wow, we're already talking about November?!)
Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook or Twitter for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.