The Bottom Line

Please jump off the 'snow hype train'. Yes, we are tracking an impending coastal storm system. Yes, we will probably see New Jersey's snowflakes of the season Tuesday evening. Yes, there is a Winter Weather Advisory issued. Yes, there could be slippery spots.

But the wintry impacts here will be very limited. Most of New Jersey will be wet. (Very wet, in fact.) And even snowy/icy areas will flip to plain rain within a few hours.

Meanwhile, cold air is here to stay. Every day for the next week, at least, features below-normal temperatures across the Garden State.

Tuesday

The big weather story here is a coastal storm system that will lead to some wet (and slightly wintry) weather Tuesday night. I want to really focus on the timeline of how the potentially sloppiness will play out.

—Tuesday Morning... It's cold out there! Most of New Jersey froze overnight, with early temperatures in the 20s and 30s. Closer to the coast, temps are closer to 40 degrees. Clouds will increase through the first half of the day. But so far, dry weather.

—Tuesday Afternoon... High temperatures will only reach about 45 to 50 degrees. (Even cooler in North Jersey.) It will be our second day of temperatures 5 to 10 degrees below. A few rain showers may creep in after 1 or 2 p.m.

—Tuesday Evening... After 5 or 6 p.m., a block of steadier rain will push into New Jersey from the southwest. For most, it will be "just plain rain" for the duration. But in northwestern New Jersey — Sussex and Warren counties, plus pieces of Hunterdon, Morris, and Passaic counties too — a few hours of wintry mix or icy mix is possible. While I doubt significant accumulation will happen, there could be some slippery spots. (NJ's first Winter Weather Advisory of the season is in effect for Sussex and Warren counties from 4 p.m. Tuesday to 7 a.m. Wednesday, cautioning of hazardous travel conditions.)

—Tuesday Night... By 1 or 2 a.m., rising temperatures will put an end to any snowflakes and ice pellets in NW NJ. Pockets of heavy rain seem especially possible through the early morning hours, potentially pushing rainfall totals past an inch. (Best chance for such pouring rain looks to be southern and coastal New Jersey.)

Wednesday

Rainfall should start to taper after about 5 a.m. By daybreak, temperatures should be in the 40s and 50s across New Jersery.

Most of the state will dry out by mid-morning (8 or 9 a.m.) Final raindrops will fall in northeastern New Jersey by about Noon Wednesday.

Skies will partially clear into Wednesday afternoon, as we pick up a stiff northwest breeze. I'll put the high temperature forecast around 50 degrees, although there is a lot of "give and take" in that estimate.

Thursday

Back to chilly, dry weather. Thursday looks pretty blustery, with a westerly breeze up to 20 mph and high temperatures only in the mid 40s. Skies will be mostly sunny. A flurry is possible, although the day looks primarily dry.

Friday

More of the same blustery, chilly sunshine. Morning lows in the 20s. Afternoon highs only reaching the lower to mid 40s. That would be a "nice" mid-winter day. But here in mid-November, it's an uncomfortable early season chill.

The Weekend & Beyond

Saturday looks like the bottom of the barrel, with high temperatures only around 40 degrees. A few clouds may dot the sky, but it will still be a bright and bone-dry day overnight.

A flip to southwesterly winds will push temperatures back into the mid 40s on Sunday. Still way below seasonal norms, but we'll take it.

And then another burst of cold air will keep temperatures chilly into the start of Thanksgiving week. I don't see a big warmup on the horizon. And our next big chance of rain doesn't appear in model guidance until about Black Friday.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook or Twitter for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.

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