The Bottom Line

Tuesday is a big transition day. Buckets of rain poured from the sky overnight, totalling 2+ inches in spots. There are still bits of energy and moisture yet to work through New Jersey, which will keep things cloudy and damp through Tuesday morning and early afternoon.

Then, the sun comes out. And dry air and dry weather will once again dominate the forecast. We begin a long dry spell that looks to continue through at least the first day of fall late next week.

Tuesday

As of this writing (6 a.m.), the "main event" of our latest storm system is over. Big boomers and a swath of heavy rain soaked most of the Garden State overnight. We are still bookended by showers at this hour, to the north and to the south.

Clouds, fog, mist, and spotty showers will remain possible through at least late morning. Raindrops may linger into early afternoon, especially to the northeast. But I suspect we'll start to see big improvements by 1 or 2 p.m.

Then we'll enjoy partial clearing Tuesday afternoon, with a refreshing breeze. Humidity levels will drop rapidly, with dew points descending from about 70 to the 50s.

And Tuesday will still be on the warm side, with 70s in the morning and lower 80s in the afternoon.

Skies will continue to clear Tuesday night. And I'll call it a "crisp" night. Low temperatures will dip to around 60 degrees. Given the dry air and (eventually) cloud-free sky, I expect many 50s away from urban and coastal areas.

Wednesday

Hands down, a spectacular September day. Expect sunny skies, dry weather, and a light northwesterly breeze. High temperatures will end up in the upper 70s to around 80. That's seasonable — close to the long-term average for mid-September.

Thursday

Another cold front will push into New Jersey Thursday morning. No rain this time around. But it will provide another burst of ridiculously dry air.

Thursday will be sunny and breezy. And dry, of course. High temperatures will cool a bit more, to the mid 70s.

Friday

By Friday morning, the dry air and clear skies will present perfect radiational cooling conditions. Thermometers are going to bottom out around 50 degrees. Yes, that means we could see some 40s in the chilliest corners of the state. You might need to grab a light jacket or sweater, for what looks like the coolest morning of the season so far.

High temperatures on Friday will push into the mid 70s again. Other than some late-day clouds building, sunshine should still dominate the sky.

The Weekend & Beyond

Sigh, this will be the last weekend of summer. And the weather looks great. (As long as you ignore those spiraling drought concerns, that is.)

Saturday looks partly sunny and dry, with highs bumping back to around the 80 degree mark.

A warmup will really kick in on Sunday, with summer-ish highs in the mid 80s. It will be mostly sunny, with only a slight tick upward in humidity levels.

The final few days of summer are trending hot — 90 degrees will be back in play next week.

According to forecast models, our next substantial chance of rain will arrive late on Sunday, September 25th. That is a full 12 days away.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook or Twitter for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.

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