Unsettled weather for NJ through midweek: Cloudy, rainy, foggy
The Bottom Line
When I use 'unsettled' in a weather forecast, you should immediately think of two things. First, lots of clouds and occasional showers. And second, me shrugging my shoulders at the precise timing of those raindrops.
With a storm system stalled (stuck) just south of New Jersey, we will sit in 'unsettled' weather through midweek.
But there are no washout days in the forecast. In fact, rain chances will gradually dial back as the week goes on, as this piece of atmospheric energy gradually loses steam. It will also get humid, which will contribute to temperatures staying above normal.
Drought-relieving rain and non-miserably cool temperatures? Sounds good to me.
If you're looking for the return of bright, dry weather, you will have to wait until Thursday.
We had some pockets of healthy rain push through New Jersey overnight. Add Sunday afternoon's showers, and rainfall totals have surpassed an inch for parts of southern and coastal New Jersey.
Plus, keep in mind, the rainfall has caused heavy leaf fall. And leaves are slippery when wet. Steady as she goes.
As of this writing (6 a.m.), a batch of steady rain is still traveling through the state. And I'm going to call for "scattered showers and drizzle" throughout Monday.
Having said that, I do think our weather will dry out quite a bit by Monday afternoon. So your outdoor activities are not a total loss.
Skies will be cloudy all day. And temperatures will be surprisingly seasonable, topping out around 60 to 65 degrees. As dew points approach the 60s, it may even feel a bit sticky or muggy late-day.
A few showers are expected Monday night. A pocket of steady rain may even crash on-shore. Fog is likely too, thanks to rising humidity and abundant ground-level moisture. Temperatures will hold steady, or even rise slightly, overnight. Look for lows around 60.
Drier than Monday, but still unsettled.
It will be mostly cloudy — a description that purposefully allows for a few breaks of sun.
And spotty showers are likely too — that is less coverage and lighter than Monday.
High temperatures will push into the upper 60s to around 70 degrees — noticeably above-normal for this time of year.
Dew points will firmly land in the 60s — that's pretty humid for late October.
I'll go out on a limb and call Wednesday "mainly dry". Skies will remain mostly cloudy. And temperatures will probably push into the lower 70s.
There will be some isolated showers around Wednesday. Especially in the late afternoon and early evening hours, as a cold front approaches. However, believe it or not, that frontal boundary will be moisture starved. The atmosphere will be "out of gas" by the time that grand finale of unsettled weather arrives.
Temperatures and humidity levels will gently dial back Wednesday night, as skies slowly clear.
Thursday is our next dry weather day. And our next chance of seeing the sun.
Expect partly to mostly sunny skies on Thursday. It will be breezy. And cooler. Although Thursday's high temperatures will only sink to seasonable, near-normal levels. Our latest forecast puts highs in the lower to mid 60s
Friday & Beyond
Friday's high temperatures come down to the 50s. Back to jacket weather, which will probably hold on through the weekend.
There are some hints at a return to unsettled weather for Friday (at least), especially along the Jersey Shore. I'm not necessarily buying into another cloudy, rainy, foggy situation. Just something to watch for now.
Our next big storm system is showing up in model guidance for early next week, primarily affecting New Jersey on Tuesday 11/1. As of right now, the Halloween forecast looks dry. However, I do have minor concerns that this rain chance drifts earlier, potentially affecting your trick-or-treating plans.
But that's an 8-day forecast, which is fuzzy at best. We'll keep a close watch on that spooky Halloween forecast, and will keep you updated.
Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook or Twitter for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.