The Bottom Line

Brace yourself for one more day of unseasonably cold weather, with high temperatures struggling to reach the freezing mark Tuesday afternoon. At least winds will be considerably lighter and less bitter than on Monday.

And then you'll notice the big difference on Wednesday, as thermometers push into the mid 40s.

The warmup continues on Thursday, as we return to 60 degrees. However, we are eyeing this week's one and only one storm system, arriving Thursday night. That will not be wintry — only wet and windy. And the ensuing cooldown won't be an arctic blast, just a return to more reasonable, more seasonable levels for the President's Day Weekend.

Throughout the second half of February, I suspect we'll have more days with above-normal temperatures than below. There are no snow threats on the horizon.

Tuesday

It's not the coldest morning of the season. But it's close.

As of this writing (6 a.m.), temperatures across New Jersey range from 0 to the northwest, to 25 to the south. Single-digit temperatures reached as far south as Ocean and Burlington counties.

I can give you two reasons why Tuesday will be better and more comfortable than Monday's arctic extravaganza: 1.) The bitter wind will be much calmer, and 2.) Temperatures will be (a little bit) warmer.

I would love to say temperatures will rise above the freezing mark Tuesday. But it will be a struggle. Our latest forecast puts highs only in the lower 30s — about 5 degrees warmer than Monday, but more than 10 degrees below normal for mid-February.

Look for sunny skies and dry weather throughout Tuesday. The air is very dry too — grab the chapstick.

Tuesday night will be the last frigid night in a while. Lows dip into the lower 20s by Wednesday morning, with clear skies and light winds. Grab the coat, hat, gloves, and/or scarf.

Wednesday

You will notice the difference in the air by Wednesday afternoon. Highs push into the mid 40s — much more seasonable and much more pleasant.

It will be a nice February day, with morning clouds then building afternoon clouds. Once again, no threat of precipitation.

Thursday

The warmup continues. In fact, we'll be back to 60-ish degrees by Thursday afternoon.

However, we have some other changes to talk about on Thursday too. I expect the day to become increasingly windy. And skies will be mostly cloudy (although not totally overcast).

And then our next storm system — a cold front — will come into view late Thursday. As I mentioned above, this one will be a wet-not-wintry situation.

A few forecast models put some rain showers over New Jersey in the 4-5 p.m. time frame Thursday afternoon. But I favor a later arrival time for raindrops, more like Thursday evening.

A period of steady rain is likely statewide Thursday night. Rainfall totals will probably reach about a half-inch. There could some pockets of heavy rain, and maybe even some rumbles of thunder.

I'm also worried about gusty winds just before, during, and just after the rain. Some estimates have pushed gusts past 60 mph along the coast — that's pretty serious, and enough to cause sporadic damage. The wind may be the most impactful piece of weather coming through New Jersey this week.

Friday

The overnight soaking rain should wrap up by mid-morning (around 8 a.m.) at the latest. And then colder air returns.

But this late-week cooldown shouldn't be another "arctic blast". Just a correction back to near-normal temps.

While Friday morning will be in the lower 60s, thermometers will dip into the lower 40s by afternoon. Bright blue, sunny skies should return by the afternoon too.

The Extended Forecast

The President's Day Weekend is fast approaching. And I still like what I see.

Mostly sunny, breezy (if not windy), and seasonable mid 40s on Saturday.

Sunny, calmer, and lower 40s on Sunday.

Partly sunny and potentially pushing into the lower 50s on Monday. Nice.

Next chance of precipitation will come from a weak storm system on Tuesday of next week. At the moment, it just looks like spotty rain showers for New Jersey.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook or Twitter for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.

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