Wednesday NJ weather: Warm and dry day, soaking wet night
The Bottom Line
During the daytime hours Wednesday, we'll find ourselves in between two storm systems. So it will be a dry, warm, humid, and (dare I say) summer-ish day.
Then we get soaked. Heavy rain is expected to arrive Wednesday night through Thursday morning. There could be some big puddles and flooding issues.
Thursday turns into a nice day. Friday looks great. And then the weekend starts not so great — gloomy and wet.
As of this writing (6 a.m.), overnight rain has exited New Jersey. And we're left with some spotty mist and drizzle to start the day. But not for long — we'll continue to dry out Wednesday morning.
Humidity levels will not be steamy or stifling on Wednesday, but noticeable. That's going to add a certain "summerlike" flair to the air.
Look for periods of sun and clouds. High temperatures will push to about 80 to 85 degrees Wednesday afternoon.
Again, dry so far. Rain looks to push into New Jersey again just before Midnight Wednesday night.
And models suggest it's really going to pour overnight. The heaviest, steadiest rain will come between about Midnight and daybreak Thursday morning. Widespread rainfall totals on the order of a half-inch to an inch are likely. Some models show a swath of 2 to 3 inches — that's a lot of water, and enough to ring alarm bells for flooding and "big puddles".
Guidance does show marginal instability in the atmosphere through early Thursday. So I think there could be some rumbles of thunder. And maybe some 30+ mph wind gusts. But widespread "severe weather" (wind, hail, tornadoes) seems unlikely this time around.
The morning commute is going to be wet, as rain continues until about mid-morning. (Things may dial back to scattered showers after sunrise, although that's not a guarantee.)
As skies dry out and clear out, it's still going to be warm and sticky to start on Thursday — I expect thermometers to reach about 80 degrees by midday, give or take.
The tricky piece of this forecast is the timing of a cold front, which is now expected to take hold of NJ Thursday afternoon. A few stray showers or even an isolated thunderstorm may popup along that boundary. And then, we'll feel drier, more refreshing air heading into Thursday evening.
Ah, another no-complaints, beautiful weather day. Mostly to partly sunny skies will meet dry weather and low humidity on Friday. High temperatures will once again hit about 80 degrees.
Blah. Not a great way to start a June weekend.
As clouds take over and we pick up an on-shore breeze, temperatures will probably get stuck in the 60s all day Saturday. And it is going to rain, although I'm still not sure if it will be "a few wet hours" or "a total washout". The steadiest stuff looks to fall over the midday hours on Saturday.
I wouldn't cancel your outdoor plans for Saturday just yet. But you might start thinking about backup plans.
Easily the better day of the weekend, although not perfect.
Models are now plugging in a few showers during the daytime hours on Sunday. But it's not a convincing solution, as the rest of the day will feature mostly to partly cloudy skies and seasonable high temperatures in the mid-upper 70s. Sounds quite pleasant if we dodge the raindrops.
The Extended Forecast
I don't want to dig too deeply into the 6+ day forecast, because the result will be highly dependent on how the weekend plays out. The GFS shows generally pleasant weather for early next week, with a shower chance on Monday and highs in the upper 70s. The Euro shows heat building in next week, with widespread 80s. So no "big, bad" storms — but there are a few options on the table.